Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 28.406920 30.254879 32.235402 34.528964 37.128803 40.004964 43.456741
2025-10-26 25.689744 28.184225 31.008093 34.486819 38.723385 43.809049 50.531046
2025-11-02 23.723795 26.515829 29.789297 33.992037 39.374876 46.241456 56.045380
2025-11-09 22.188567 25.134758 28.678702 33.372703 39.626201 48.009349 60.805156
2025-11-16 21.017127 24.067522 27.814616 32.908921 39.930077 49.769734 65.764107
2025-11-23 20.045115 23.162043 27.058741 32.475851 40.167218 51.388303 70.752007
2025-11-30 19.625655 22.913219 27.107863 33.094969 41.907959 55.431959 80.697621
2025-12-07 18.959045 22.297473 26.619367 32.907375 42.415239 57.584979 87.819266
2025-12-14 18.198114 21.514915 25.853985 32.255831 42.130961 58.361905 92.425827
2025-12-21 17.548380 20.847213 25.204851 31.718854 41.959600 59.285264 97.599481
2025-12-28 17.368468 20.794894 25.392935 32.416106 43.814906 64.089021 113.431755
2026-01-04 17.098452 20.603935 25.370177 32.784293 45.154243 68.166028 129.597928
2026-01-11 16.779602 20.343140 25.249115 33.016016 46.331452 72.262027 148.886461
2026-01-18 16.411318 19.998445 24.989109 33.009735 47.089501 75.662021 168.862627
2026-01-25 15.944136 19.495971 24.472783 32.553625 46.973728 77.108080 183.085360
2026-02-01 15.475851 18.975229 23.906489 31.979816 46.580371 77.845274 195.311734
2026-02-08 15.075084 18.536924 23.444513 31.549645 46.418707 79.116564 211.685228
2026-02-15 14.705493 18.131174 23.014877 31.147643 46.272949 80.409410 230.185292
2026-02-22 14.606523 18.109395 23.161649 31.722254 48.113567 87.277807 295.622017
2026-03-01 14.328074 17.817767 22.883082 31.548211 48.412682 90.062539 341.568870
2026-03-08 13.960025 17.385288 22.372353 30.943291 47.758405 89.977990 362.963590
2026-03-15 13.634309 17.006740 21.933475 30.444224 47.290360 90.382137 392.726569
2026-03-22 13.592244 17.042460 22.138698 31.092160 49.349396 99.146906 585.674612